Better Lucky Than Good

This week I was in Las Vegas. I mostly played cash games due to time constraints. However, I did play in one tournament. As I walked into the Stratosphere on Wednesday, they made an announcement that the one o'clock daily was about to start.

My wife, who reads my mind after 16 years of marriage, asked me "how long will it take?" After checking at the poker room/area and seeing 17 entries, I told her about 3 hours (yes, I am an optimist). She accepted the burden of having to go shopping while I played cards.

I chose the grinder approach and, with a few exceptions, stuck to premium play. After 2 hours, the two tables were consolidated to one. I was chip leader with 17K in chips. Average stack was 8K. Blinds were 400/800 with no antes until the next level. Players were starting to get antsy with most of them holding fewer than 10 big blinds and everyone else not far behind. With the free-for-all about to begin, I needed to figure out how I was going to last to one of only two spots getting paid.

A few hands later, 8 players were left. The player two to my right was first-in, raising to 2800. Then it was fold-fold to me on the button. I looked down at Ace-Jack off suit and declared "Raise. The bet is his stack," as I pointed to the raiser. The blinds folded and the raiser shrugged his shoulders as he meekly called his remaining 3K into a pot of 9800.

He turned over his Ace-3 of hearts. I was already counting the chips as I flipped over the dominating hand... OH NO!!!!! What I thought was an Ace was actually a 4!!!!

The dealer heard me comment on my mistake and laughed that he has mistaken fours for Aces, too. Small consolation. Where do I pick up my donkey ears, sir?

So, I'm heads up with Jack-4 off suit against Ace-3 hearts. The flop came out Ac-2c-10c. I was so distracted by my mistake that it wasn't until the table groaned at the turn card, 6c, that I saw my 4 was a club! With great remorse (NOT!!!) I collected the pot.

I was now triple the average stack with only six players and me left. Eventually I made it to heads-up play where we chopped the prize. But without my unfortunate mistake (for player #8) and amazing suckout, the result could have easily been different.

Never thought...

Thursday. Blinds 100/200. I admit it. I was steaming from the first hand of the night where I squeezed some chips out with pocket Aces.

In hand #2, I'm heads-up with the same player! I put my opponent on A-X or a pocket pair based on his preflop raise to $600 and C-bet on the flop.

Since I started from the small blind, I could easily have ATC against a standard raise, and Q-J suited came pretty close. When I check-insta-called his third shot on the turn, I sensed that he no longer thought I was drawing.

The river pairs. On my side of the cards is a busted flush draw, Queen high. What to do? A $4K bet into a $6K pot sends my opponent into the tank.

The board is full of possibilities; a pair and all low cards. On his side of the cards I might have the straight or the boat or lesser hands that beat top pair or pocket pair.

The point here is that when you make a bluff you take a leap of faith that any opposing player is experienced/smart enough to know what you are representing (and that you read the situation correctly and and he doesn't have the nutz!). Hats off to the players who are capable of making brilliant folds with strong holdings.

I aspire to the grandeur. Meanwhile, when he folded, I threw down my bluff face up which tilted half the table. Bonus.

235 points to go

Never thought I would do it...

I never thought that I would ever make a bluff for all my chips, but it happened during Thursday night league.
9 handed game I was 2 seats after BB
Under the gun was Ben (who thinks the big blind is a ante and posts it everyhand) calling station..
I limped as well for 600 KQ off ( a hand I usually through in the muck in that position.)
I believe 7 players to the flop of
6,8,2 check, check, check, I lead out with 2,000
Everyone fold around to Pete who calls.
head up
Turn a blank 10 I beleive
I fire again 3,000
Pete calls without thinking much
River blank as well 3
I push all in for about 14K
Pete tanks and runs the hand over and over in his head, puts me on 2 pair and finally mucks after taking what seemed to be forever and flips up an 8.
I had to show the bluff and it tilted him
(Sorry Pete)

Showing that bluff paid off a few hands later when a pot was raised to 2500 i smooth called with 99 and flopped a set vs QQ I checked raised, QQ pushed all in probably thinking I was at it again. Felted him. Bill Kramer
(Sorry Bill)

196 points to go

No Peeking!

At the final table on Thursday, I'm watching this luckbox player who over a couple hands eliminates the initial bigstack. He starts winning every hand except an impossible split pot where he was dominated. In the bulk of these wins, he wasn't even looking at his cards.

I met a cash game player in Vegas a couple years ago who rarely looked at his cards. After he pounded my stack to oblivion, he told me of playing an entire tournament with this strategy. Impossible! I thought out loud. He assured me that it was both possible and profitable. I then discovered a strategy by a controversial poker and blackjack author for certain structure tournaments that did not involve looking at your cards (except for showdowns). I admit, I have experimented and it has some merit in a fast tournament.

Anyway... I'm two seats off the button with 22k. There's no small blind and luckbox has 8k up for the big blind. Everyone folds to me. In this classic battle involving chips, position and cards, I'm zero out of three before looking at my cards. I may as well peek.

I look down at my QJ suited and for a second considered the blinds rising to 6k/12k and I have less than 2 blinds for my next cards. Besides, I was better than 60% against any two random cards in a heads-up situation. ALL-IN.

Fold, fold, and as predicted, luckbox/superstack calls the 14k without looking.

To fish or not to fish, that is the question.

I'm experimenting with marginal plays in the hopes of gaining info about how I am perceiving the other players. Trying to make the final table each week only complicates matters. But, that's my problem. Here is the problem for all of us:

There are two players I have focused on that are in direct opposition. Both are top five players this season. As they are consistent at making the final table I don't think luck is the predominant factor for either one (although it is early in the season). Player 1 calls a lot, folds a little, and rarely raises. Player 2 raises a lot, folds a lot and rarely just calls.

Logic, experience and many books tell me that player 1 is a fish and player 2 is either a shark or a maniac. How can these opposing strategies both be successful? Can a fish or a maniac be successful in the long term? Further, can you force other players to mix it up? Would you want to?